Chelsea Green Publishing

Future Scenarios

Pages:136 pages
Book Art:Color illustrations and graphs
Size: 5 x 8 inch
Publisher:Chelsea Green Publishing
Paperback: 9781603580892
Pub. Date April 14, 2009
eBook: 9781603582063
Pub. Date April 04, 2012

Future Scenarios

How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change

Availability: In Stock

Paperback

Available Date:
April 14, 2009

$12.00 $7.80

Availability: In Stock

eBook

Available Date:
April 04, 2012

$12.00 $7.80

In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us.

“Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.”

Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.

As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.”

Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.

REVIEWS AND PRAISE

"These aren't two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures."--Adam Grubb, founder, Energy Bulletin

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

David Holmgren

David Holmgren is best known as the co-originator with Bill Mollison of the permaculture concept following the publication of Permaculture One in 1978. Since then he has written several more books, developed three properties using permaculture principles, conducted workshops and courses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Japan. Within the growing and international permaculture movement, David is respected for his commitment to presenting permaculture ideas through practical projects and teaching by personal example, that a sustainable lifestyle is a realistic, attractive and powerful alternative to dependent consumerism. As well as constant involvement in the practical side of permaculture, David is passionate about the philosophical and conceptual foundations for sustainability, which he explored in Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (2009), and Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability (2003). With an increasingly high profile as a public speaker, David Holmgren provides leadership with his refreshing and unorthodox approach to the environmental issues of our time.

David lives with his partner Su Dennett and their son Oliver at "Melliodora", a one-hectare permaculture demonstration site at Hepburn Springs, Central Victoria, Australia. Visit his web site at www.holmgren.com.au.

CONNECT WITH THIS AUTHOR

David's Website

ALSO BY THIS AUTHOR

Permaculture

Permaculture

By David Holmgren

David Holmgren brings into sharper focus the powerful and still evolving Permaculture concept he pioneered with Bill Mollison in the 1970s. It draws together and integrates 25 years of thinking and teaching to reveal a whole new way of understanding and action behind a simple set of design principles. The 12 design principles are each represented by a positive action statement, an icon and a traditional proverb or two that captures the essence of each principle.

Holmgren draws a correlation between every aspect of how we organize our lives, communities and landscapes and our ability to creatively adapt to the ecological realities that shape human destiny. For students and teachers of Permaculture this book provides something more fundamental and distilled than Mollison's encyclopedic Designers Manual. For the general reader it provides refreshing perspectives on a range of environmental issues and shows how permaculture is much more than just a system of gardening. For anyone seriously interested in understanding the foundations of sustainable design and culture, this book is essential reading. Although a book of ideas, the big picture is repeatedly grounded by reference to Holmgren's own place, Melliodora, and other practical examples.

Available in: Paperback

Read More

Permaculture

David Holmgren

Paperback $30.00

Beyond the War on Invasive Species

Beyond the War on Invasive Species

By Tao Orion

Invasive species are everywhere, from forests and prairies to mountaintops and river mouths. Their rampant nature and sheer numbers appear to overtake fragile native species and forever change the ecosystems that they depend on. Concerns that invasive species represent significant threats to global biodiversity and ecological integrity permeate conversations from schoolrooms to board rooms, and concerned citizens grapple with how to rapidly and efficiently manage their populations. These worries have culminated in an ongoing “war on invasive species,” where the arsenal is stocked with bulldozers, chainsaws, and herbicides put to the task of their immediate eradication. In Hawaii, mangrove trees (Avicennia spp.) are sprayed with glyphosate and left to decompose on the sandy shorelines where they grow, and in Washington, helicopters apply the herbicide Imazapyr to smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) growing in estuaries. The “war on invasive species” is in full swing, but given the scope of such potentially dangerous and ecologically degrading eradication practices, it is necessary to question the very nature of the battle.

Beyond the War on Invasive Species offers a much-needed alternative perspective on invasive species and the best practices for their management based on a holistic, permaculture-inspired framework. Utilizing the latest research and thinking on the changing nature of ecological systems, Beyond the War on Invasive Species closely examines the factors that are largely missing from the common conceptions of invasive species, including how the colliding effects of climate change, habitat destruction, and changes in land use and management contribute to their proliferation. Beyond the War on Invasive Species demonstrates that there is more to the story of invasive species than is commonly conceived, and offers ways of understanding their presence and ecosystem effects in order to make more ecologically responsible choices in land restoration and biodiversity conservation that address the root of the invasion phenomenon. The choices we make on a daily basis—the ways we procure food, shelter, water, medicine, and transportation—are the major drivers of contemporary changes in ecosystem structure and function; therefore, deep and long-lasting ecological restoration outcomes will come not just from eliminating invasive species, but through conscientious redesign of these production systems. 

Available in: Paperback, eBook

Read More

Beyond the War on Invasive Species

David Holmgren, Tao Orion

Paperback $22.95

The Basics of Permaculture Design

The Basics of Permaculture Design

By Ross Mars

The Basics of Permaculture Design, first published in Australia in 1996, is an excellent introduction to the principles of permaculture, design processes, and the tools needed for designing sustainable gardens, farms, and larger communities.

Packed with useful tips, clear illustrations, and a wealth of experience, it guides you through designs for gardens, urban and rural properties, water harvesting systems, animal systems, permaculture in small spaces like balconies and patios, farms, schools, and ecovillages. This is both a do-ityourself guide for the enthusiast and a useful reference for permaculture designers.

Available in: Paperback, eBook

Read More

The Basics of Permaculture Design

Ross Mars, David Holmgren, Martin Ducker

Paperback $25.00

AUTHOR VIDEOS

Rondônia Deforestation

Rondônia Deforestation

PERMACULTURE & PEAK OIL: Beyond 'Sustainability'

PERMACULTURE & PEAK OIL: Beyond 'Sustainability'

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Confronting Collapse (Book & DVD Bundle)

Confronting Collapse (Book & DVD Bundle)

By Michael C. Ruppert

Confronting Collapse by Michael C. Ruppert with Collapse directed by Chris Smith

The world is running short of energy—especially cheap, easy-to-find  oil. Shortages, along with resulting price increases, threaten  industrialized civilization, the global economy, and our entire way of  life.

In Confronting Collapse, author Michael C. Ruppert, a former  LAPD narcotics officer turned investigative journalist, details the  intricate connections between money and energy, including the ways in  which oil shortages and price spikes triggered the economic crash that  began in September 2008. Given the 96 percent correlation between  economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions and the unlikelihood of  economic growth without a spike in energy use, Ruppert argues that we  are not, in fact, on the verge of economic recovery, but on the verge of  complete collapse.

Ruppert’s truth is not merely inconvenient. It is utterly  devastating.

But there is still hope. Ruppert outlines a 25-point plan of action,  including the creation of a second strategic petroleum reserve for the  use of state and local governments, the immediate implementation of a  national Feed-in Tariff mandating that electric utilities pay 3 percent  above market rates for all surplus electricity generated from renewable  sources, a thorough assessment of soil conditions nationwide, and an  emergency action plan for soil restoration and sustainable agriculture.

In the documentary, Collapse, director Chris Smith filmed Ruppert sitting alone in a room that looks like a bunker and chain smoking as he tells of the dangers facing our society.

"Ruppert recounts his career  as a radical thinker and spells out the crises he sees ahead. He draws  upon the same news reports and data available to any Internet user, but  he applies a unique interpretation. He is especially passionate about  the issue of peak oil, the concern raised by scientists since the  seventies that the world will eventually run out of fossil fuel. While  other experts debate this issue in measured tones, Ruppert doesn't hold  back at sounding an alarm, portraying an apocalyptic future. Listening  to his rapid flow of opinions, the viewer is likely to question some of  the rhetoric as paranoid or deluded, and to sway back and forth on what  to make of the extremism. Smith lets viewers form their own judgments." Thom Powers, Toronto International Film Festival

Available in: Mixed media product

Read More

Confronting Collapse (Book & DVD Bundle)

Michael C. Ruppert, Chris Smith, Kate Noble

Mixed media product $29.95

Walking with the Great Apes

Walking with the Great Apes

By Sy Montgomery

Three astounding women scientists have in recent years penetrated the jungles of Africa and Borneo to observe, nurture, and defend humanity's closest cousins. Jane Goodall has worked with the chimpanzees of Gombe for nearly 50 years; Diane Fossey died in 1985 defending the mountain gorillas of Rwanda; and Biruté Galdikas lives in intimate proximity to the orangutans of Borneo. All three began their work as protégées of the great Anglo-African archeologist Louis Leakey, and each spent years in the field, allowing the apes to become their familiars--and ultimately waging battles to save them from extinction in the wild.

Their combined accomplishments have been mind-blowing, as Goodall, Fossey, and Galdikas forever changed how we think of our closest evolutionary relatives, of ourselves, and of how to conduct good science. From the personal to the primate, Sy Montgomery explores the science, wisdom, and living experience of three of the greatest scientists of the twentieth century.



Available in: Paperback, eBook

Read More

Walking with the Great Apes

Sy Montgomery, Elizabeth Marshall Thomas

Paperback $19.95

Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update (Book & CD-ROM Bundle)

Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update (Book & CD-ROM Bundle)

By Donella Meadows and Jorgen Randers and Dennis Meadows

In 1972 four young scientists at MIT wrote a book called The Limits to Growth that shocked the world and became an international best-seller. Using the World3 computer model, the authors looked into the future and sounded an alarm, for the first time showing the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet. Their book gained worldwide attention and became the cornerstone of a global debate on how to achieve a sustainable future.

Twenty years later the authors wrote Beyond the Limits, a follow-up volume that showed humanity was already overshooting Earth's limits. Beyond the Limits again provoked a national debate and galvanized the scientific and environmental academics leaders to incorporate Limits to Growth into the core environmental studies curriculum.

Now Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update brings data on overshoot and global ecological collapse to the present moment. It provides a short course in the World3 computer model, types of growth, and the various kinds of overshoot likely to occur in the current century. While it remains to be seen whether public policy will respond effectively and in time to problems such as climate change, this book makes a compelling case for the vital need for a Sustainability Revolution.

The CD

This disc is intended for serious students of Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. It permits users to reproduce and examine the details of the ten scenarios published in the book. The CD can be run on most Macintosh and PC operating systems. With it you will be able to:

  • Reproduce the three graphs for each of the scenarios as they appear in the book
  • Graph the eleven individual parameters for each scenario
  • Create comparative plots to examine the behavior of one parameter under the assumptions for two or more scenarios
  • Print out 47 key variables in five-year increments from 1900 to 2100 for any of the scenarios

 The CD also includes:

  • Full model equations compatible with STELLA
  • Eighty-five JPEG files of the important book illustrations for use in lectures and classroom discussions

Available in: Mixed media product

Read More

Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update (Book & CD-ROM Bundle)

Jorgen Randers, Dennis Meadows, Donella Meadows

Mixed media product $42.50

The Man Who Planted Trees

The Man Who Planted Trees

By Jean Giono

We have joined the Paul Winter Consort in the release of a CD version of the acclaimed audio of the story by Jean Giono. The original music was composed and is performed by the Paul Winter consort, and the text is narrated by Robert J. Lurtsema, host of “Morning Pro Musica.”

The hero of the story, Elzéard Bouffier, spent his life planting one hundred acorns a day in a desolate, barren section of Provence in the south of France. The result was a total transformation of the landscape-from one devoid of life, with miserable, contentious inhabitants, to one filled with the scent of flowers, the songs of birds, and fresh, flowing water.

Available in: CD-Audio

Read More

The Man Who Planted Trees

Jean Giono, Robert J. Lurtsema, Paul Winter Consort

CD-Audio $16.00