The popular vote in the primary elections

Posted on Wednesday, February 6th, 2008 at 6:35 pm by JTE

I’ve been frustrated by the fact that I can’t easily find popular vote totals for the various primaries and caucuses this election season that are assembled for overall viewing and analysis. So I wasted some otherwise valuable work time and punched numbers one by one into Excel to produce these. (Margo, please forgive me.) My source was the various result pages from CNN, like this one for Super Tuesday (for others, choose from the “date” dropdown menu). My apologies for any errors in transcribing the numbers. Now these numbers aren’t perfectly accurate on two counts (besides issues of keyboarding errors, lost votes, and fraud and such). First, CNN didn’t have 100 percent precints reporting for yesterday’s voting, though pretty much every state was reporting at least 97 percent. Second, the states with caucuses are weird. Some of them seem to be listing actual votes and some are just tallies of pledged delegates. But anyway, this should give a pretty good rough approximation of what’s been going on in the popular vote thus far. I’ll try to update it as new primaries and caucuses occur. Here’s what I’ve got:

Democratic primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

and

Republican primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

and just the leading candidates of both parties side-by-side

Both party leading candidates primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

Some quick notables:

  • The results in Michigan for the Democrats are heavily skewed in favor of Senator Clinton since Senator Obama wasn’t listed on that ballot. Notice that the “other” category there is so high. So for bean counters in the race between Clinton and Obama, that’s something to be aware of.
  • Overall voting for Democratic candidates is nearly 50 percent higher than overall voting for Republican candidates; or, reversing the math, overall Republican voting was nearly 33 percent lower than overall Democratic voting. Whichever version floats your spin boat.
  • Ron Paul has received more votes than Rudy Giuliani. And this guy saved the world from terrorism? What a joke!
  • Clinton and Obama each have received nearly twice as many votes as the leading Republican, Senator McCain.
  • In his home state of Arizona, McCain failed to garner even 50 percent of the Republican vote. That must be a little disappointing. They know something the rest of us don’t?

That’s it for now, friends. Stay tuned.

[UPDATE] Here are some more vote tallies: Feb 11 , Feb 13 , Feb 20 , March 5.

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