Archive for February, 2008


Popular vote update Feb 13

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

Looks like Senator Obama has just eeked by Senator Clinton to take the lead in the ongoing popular vote tally. Here are updates that include yesterday’s Maryland, Virginia, and DC (statehood now!) primaries. A new feature debuting in today’s update–in the “both party” summary tally, I’ve added a row showing each candidate’s total as a percentage of the leading (Obama) candidate’s total, and of the trailing (Republican) party’s total as a percentage of the leading (Democratic) party’s total.

Democratic primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 13)

Republican primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 13)

Both party leading candidates primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 13)

Other than the change-up in the lead, no new observations. Previous observations:

  • The results in Michigan for the Democrats are heavily skewed in favor of Senator Clinton since Senator Obama wasn’t listed on that ballot. Notice that the “other” category there is so high. So for bean counters in the race between Clinton and Obama, that’s something to be aware of.
  • Overall voting for Democratic candidates is nearly 50 percent higher than overall voting for Republican candidates; or, reversing the math, overall Republican voting was nearly 33 percent lower than overall Democratic voting. Whichever version floats your spin boat.
  • Ron Paul has received more votes than Rudy Giuliani. And this guy saved the world from terrorism? What a joke!
  • Clinton and Obama each have received nearly twice as many votes as the leading Republican, Senator McCain.
  • In his home state of Arizona, McCain failed to garner even 50 percent of the Republican vote. That must be a little disappointing. They know something the rest of us don’t?
  • Total votes for McCain=4.9million, Romney=4.1million, Huckabee=2.5million. And yet Romney is the one who got squeezed out of the race while Huckabee threatens a Giants-over-Patriots upset? Weird.

Feb 11 tallies.

Feb 6 tallies.

UPDATE: Devilstower at DailyKos is showing me up. All I did was dutifully type in the numbers and post the tallies. He/she actually took just a moment to notice this marvelous notable observation:

 

Barack Obama didn’t just beat Hillary in Virginia. He didn’t just get more votes than John McCain. In “red” Virginia, Obama got 142,000 more votes than all the Republicans put together. And that was with Hillary Clinton taking 100,000 more votes than John McCain.

He kicked butt, took names, and did it with both hands tied behind his back.

Oh, and in Maryland, with 40% of the vote in, Hillary is beating all Republicans put together while losing by 27%. You could probably limit Democrats to only left-handed voters, or red-haired voters, or left-handed red-haired voters whose names start with ‘Q,’ and the Republicans would still be in trouble.

He/she wasn’t quite right about Clinton outpolling the combined Republicans in Maryland, but she sure came close (with 93% of precincts reporting it’s Clinton: 273,828 vs. All Republican: 277,162).

[UPDATE number 2] Here are some more vote tallies: Feb 20 , March 5.

A little climate law can be a dangerous thing

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

One of the important take-home messages in Peter Barnes’ Climate Solutions is that the political action needed for addressing global warming has to be done right, and it has to be done right the first time. That’s not only because time is running has pretty much run out, it’s that the needed policies will be forcing large changes on the economy’s status quo, and politics being what it is, any policies adopted risk being undermined by fair-weather politicians in the future. The first tool in the belt of the underminers is to greenwash government action–have the government adopt policies that look like they’ll do something but in reality won’t do enough. Adding insult to injury, they also threaten to enrich the fossil fuel industries at the expense of everyone else. Instead of fiddling while Rome burns, it’ll be like mailing out Photoshopped images of Congress “fighting the fire” when actually they’re roasting marshmallows with their benefactors in the box seats. Most voters won’t be in a position to know the difference, and so the politicians will get to spit shine their reputations with voters as leaders on the issue and eat their corporate contributions too.

The environmental group Friends of the Earth is on the same page as Barnes. They’ve got a letter-to-Congress campaign going to beat back the first major greenwash effort being led by Senator Corporate Tool Joe Lieberman. “FIX or DITCH the Lieberman-Warner Global Warming Bill.” On your way to picking up a copy of Barnes’ vital new book (which has additional tips on how to make climate policy more resistant to political backsliding), take a moment to click over to FoE and join the fight.

Popular vote update Feb 11

Monday, February 11th, 2008

There were a few more primaries and caucuses this past weekend, so here are updated popular vote tallies. (First version)

Democratic primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 11)

Republican primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 11)

Both party leading candidates primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 11)

My previous “quick notables” still stand:

  • The results in Michigan for the Democrats are heavily skewed in favor of Senator Clinton since Senator Obama wasn’t listed on that ballot. Notice that the “other” category there is so high. So for bean counters in the race between Clinton and Obama, that’s something to be aware of.
  • Overall voting for Democratic candidates is nearly 50 percent higher than overall voting for Republican candidates; or, reversing the math, overall Republican voting was nearly 33 percent lower than overall Democratic voting. Whichever version floats your spin boat.
  • Ron Paul has received more votes than Rudy Giuliani. And this guy saved the world from terrorism? What a joke!
  • Clinton and Obama each have received nearly twice as many votes as the leading Republican, Senator McCain.
  • In his home state of Arizona, McCain failed to garner even 50 percent of the Republican vote. That must be a little disappointing. They know something the rest of us don’t?

And here’s another notable that now occurs to me:

  • Total votes for McCain=4.9million, Romney=4.1million, Huckabee=2.5million. And yet Romney is the one who got squeezed out of the race while Huckabee threatens a Giants-over-Patriots upset? Weird.

[UPDATE] Here are some more vote tallies: Feb 13 , Feb 20 , March 5.

The popular vote in the primary elections

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008

I’ve been frustrated by the fact that I can’t easily find popular vote totals for the various primaries and caucuses this election season that are assembled for overall viewing and analysis. So I wasted some otherwise valuable work time and punched numbers one by one into Excel to produce these. (Margo, please forgive me.) My source was the various result pages from CNN, like this one for Super Tuesday (for others, choose from the “date” dropdown menu). My apologies for any errors in transcribing the numbers. Now these numbers aren’t perfectly accurate on two counts (besides issues of keyboarding errors, lost votes, and fraud and such). First, CNN didn’t have 100 percent precints reporting for yesterday’s voting, though pretty much every state was reporting at least 97 percent. Second, the states with caucuses are weird. Some of them seem to be listing actual votes and some are just tallies of pledged delegates. But anyway, this should give a pretty good rough approximation of what’s been going on in the popular vote thus far. I’ll try to update it as new primaries and caucuses occur. Here’s what I’ve got:

Democratic primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

and

Republican primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

and just the leading candidates of both parties side-by-side

Both party leading candidates primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 6)

Some quick notables:

  • The results in Michigan for the Democrats are heavily skewed in favor of Senator Clinton since Senator Obama wasn’t listed on that ballot. Notice that the “other” category there is so high. So for bean counters in the race between Clinton and Obama, that’s something to be aware of.
  • Overall voting for Democratic candidates is nearly 50 percent higher than overall voting for Republican candidates; or, reversing the math, overall Republican voting was nearly 33 percent lower than overall Democratic voting. Whichever version floats your spin boat.
  • Ron Paul has received more votes than Rudy Giuliani. And this guy saved the world from terrorism? What a joke!
  • Clinton and Obama each have received nearly twice as many votes as the leading Republican, Senator McCain.
  • In his home state of Arizona, McCain failed to garner even 50 percent of the Republican vote. That must be a little disappointing. They know something the rest of us don’t?

That’s it for now, friends. Stay tuned.

[UPDATE] Here are some more vote tallies: Feb 11 , Feb 13 , Feb 20 , March 5.


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