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Chelsea Green Blog

Popular vote update Feb 20

The previous: Feb 13, Feb 11, Feb 6. [UPDATE: March 5] The latest, including a new table for additional analysis (and gloating on the part of Democrats): Democratic primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 20) Republican primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 20) Both party leading candidates primary popular vote totals (as of Feb 20) Comparing 2nd-place Democrat to 1st-place Republican and all Republicans combined (as of Feb 20) Some new notables:
  • So far in the primary season, turnout for Democrats was over 1,000,000 voters in 8 states. For Republicans, that has happened in only 2 states.
  • Despite being in a somewhat distant second-place, Senator Clinton still received more than twice as many votes as McCain in Wisconsin.
  • In the 25 states where both Republicans and Democrats have held primaries (rather than caucuses) so far, the second-place Democrat has outpolled the first-place Republican 19 times. Wow.
  • In the 25 states where both Republicans and Democrats have held primaries so far, the second-place Democrat has outpolled all Republicans combined 5 times. Double wow.*
Previous observations which mostly still stand:
  • The results in Michigan for the Democrats are heavily skewed in favor of Senator Clinton since Senator Obama wasn’t listed on that ballot. Notice that the “other” category there is so high. So for bean counters in the race between Clinton and Obama, that’s something to be aware of.
  • Overall voting for Democratic candidates is nearly 50 percent higher than overall voting for Republican candidates; or, reversing the math, overall Republican voting was nearly 33 percent lower than overall Democratic voting. Whichever version floats your spin boat.
  • Ron Paul has received more votes than Rudy Giuliani. And this guy saved the world from terrorism? What a joke!
  • Clinton and Obama each have received nearly twice as many votes as the leading Republican, Senator McCain.
  • In his home state of Arizona, McCain failed to garner even 50 percent of the Republican vote. That must be a little disappointing. They know something the rest of us don’t?
  • Total votes for McCain=4.9million, Romney=4.1million, Huckabee=2.5million. And yet Romney is the one who got squeezed out of the race while Huckabee threatens a Giants-over-Patriots upset? Weird.
* Personally, that makes me think that the supposedly less electable Senator Clinton would still have a rather good chance of defeating McCain in the general election. (Though, of course, the disgusting Electoral College makes this kind of simplistic number analysis much less reliable.)


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